A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
